Who believes forecasters?
Cassandra, the mythological Trojan, was given the power of prophecy but cursed with never being believed. Modern forecasters generally suffer from the Cassandra predicament. Yet the appetite for prophecy has only expanded. As we enter the new year, it is … Continued
Paris attacks: assembling an economic analysis
On 13 November, the city of Paris was attacked by a group of armed gunmen killing 130 people and injuring a further 389. The brutality and atrocity of this attack will have lingering emotional consequences for the people of Paris, … Continued
The dragon stirs: RMB on track to squeeze dollar
The rise of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) and its increasing importance in cross-border trades has accelerated since the Great Financial Crisis hit the west in 2008-2009. Since then, the US economy has experienced a number of problems in the long-term … Continued
The art of financial network science, part II
The second annual Financial Risk & Network Science seminar was held on September 9 at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School, in partnership between the Centre and Risk Journals. As with last year, there was a great display of … Continued
Where does cyber risk accumulate for insurers?
“Taxonomy is described sometimes as a science and sometimes as an art, but really it’s a battleground.” ― Bill Bryson, A Short History of Nearly Everything After attending a cyber-risk accumulation workshop with a variety of cyber risk underwriters, I … Continued
Opening Pandora’s box: using city-scale risk models to quantify the global cost of catastrophes, and the value of resilience
In the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies we have developed a framework to quantify the potential damage from a Pandora’s box of all ills – a comprehensive taxonomy of catastrophes. The methodology and outputs speak directly to the value of … Continued
Welcome to the boardroom: have Chief Risk Officers become too prominent?
While participating in this year’s Aspen Critical Issues and Risk Forum, I had the opportunity to hear from a number of non-executive board members on the pressing challenges facing public boards. The theme of the forum addressed effective board governance … Continued
Eurobond Correlation Network: a case history
During the last two decades, the European sovereign bond market has been driven not only by the converging mechanism of its common currency, but by the centrifugal forces of trade imbalances and unequal sovereign credit capacity also. The Eurozone government … Continued
Eurobond Correlation Network: fearing the Grexit
Over the last five years, fears over a Greek debt and a financial contagion spreading to PIGS countries have dominated Euro Bond markets. Looking into 10 year bond price correlations across the same period, we are able to observe that, … Continued
The emergent white-blood cells of the internet
I attended the 27th Annual FIRST conference in Berlin recently. I have attended regularly for the last four years, and this year I noticed a couple of important things. Firstly, if you’ll forgive the pun, there was an increase in … Continued